Methods of Risk Assessment for the Implementation of Economic Development Projects in the Arctic Regions

Abstract

The subject of the study is the creation of a diversified industrial and technological system of enterprises in the Arctic regions of Russia, which is a very complex process that requires taking into account financial, environmental, and technological factors affecting entrepreneurial activity. This is important because a delay in the implementation of only one project, a change in its location, production capacity and something else other than the initial plan for the formation of the entire complex of enterprises can lead not only to lost profits on this project, but also to potential damage caused to the following enterprises in the production and technological chain before receiving the final result of their activities is the loading of the Northern Sea Route. The purpose of the work is to increase the effectiveness of risk management based on the assessment of the risk of negative events that may cause non — receipt of expected revenues for projects that are inextricably linked by production ties. The novelty of the study is to create a scale for assessing the probability of occurrence of negative events and the possible amount of lost profits to build a risk matrix of projects related to production chains. A variant of assessing the importance of projects to achieve the main result — ensuring the loading of the Northern Sea Route is given. An algorithm has been formed for calculating the risk matrix and, on this basis, assessing the priority of negative events for making management decisions to reduce the risk of violating the implementation plans of the planned plans. It is concluded that the approach chosen in the study can be adapted to any number of projects linked together by the goal. These calculations make it possible to apply the developed scheme for prioritizing the occurrence of negative events to reduce the risks of project implementation in poorly developed regions.