Changes in human potential in Russia until 2050 under the influence of the transformation of the age structure of the population
https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2023-16-2-37-47
Abstract
The subject of the study is the projected changes in the age composition of the population as a factor of the prospective dynamics of the components of human potential.
The purpose of the work is to assess the upcoming shifts in the age composition of the Russian population for the period up to 2050 and related changes in the health status of the population and the proportion of people with higher education as components of human potential. The article presents the results of the forecast calculation of the age population of Russia for the period up to 2050. As a result of the study, it was found out that a significant increase in the proportion of the elderly population is expected, a decrease in the proportion of people of working age and an even greater decrease in the proportion of the population under the age of 20. An assessment of possible changes in the health status of the population (according to self-assessment) in connection with the upcoming aging of the population is given.
It is concluded that taking into account generational changes in the proportion of people with higher education, combined with upcoming shifts in the age structure of the population, indicate a likely significant increase in this indicator in the population of Russia in the next 30 years.
About the Authors
E. P. Sigareva
The Institute of Demographic Research is a separate division of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgenia P. Sigareva — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher
Moscow
S. Y. Sivoplyasova
The Institute of Demographic Research is a separate division of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Svetlana Yu. Sivoplyasova — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Senior Researcher, Institute of Demographic Research — a separate division of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Assoc. Prof. of the Department of Economic Theory and Practical Economics, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University)
Moscow
V. N. Arkhangelsk
The Institute of Demographic Research is a separate division of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir N. Arkhangelsky — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher, Institute of Demographic Research — a separate division of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the
Sector of Theoretical Problems of Reproduction and Population Policy of the Research Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography, Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University
Moscow
References
1. Shultz T. Human capital in the international encyclopedia of the social sciences. N.Y., 1968, vol. 6.
2. Becker G.S. Human capital. N.Y., 1964.
3. Mincer J. Investment in human capital and personal income distribution. Journal of Political Economy. 1958;66(4):281–302. DOI: 10.1086/258055
4. Becker G.S. Investment in human capital: a theoretical analysis. Journal of Political Economy. 1962;70(5–2):9– 49. DOI: 10.1086/258724
5. Thurow L. Investment in human capital. Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Company; 1970.
6. Demin P. Human Capital as a Factor of the Republic of Belarus’ Economic Integration. Belarusian Journal of International Law and International Relations. 2003; 3:87–92 URL: https://elib.bsu.by/bitstream/123456789/31765/1/2003_3_JILIR_demin.pdf. (In Russ.).
7. Krutin Yu.V., Mokronosov A.G. Human capital or human potential. Idei i idealy = Ideas & Ideals. 2017;9(2– 2):80–89. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17212/2075–0862–2017–2.2–80–89
8. Sukiasyan A.G. Designing and development of the human potential concept. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. 2015;(1):44–52. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.21686/2413–2829–2015–1–44–52
9. Sen A. Welfare economics and the real world. Acceptance paper for the Frank Seidman distinguished award in political economy / published by F.K. Seidman Foundation. Memphis, 1986. Р. 11. URL: http://dlynx.rhodes.edu:8080/jspui/handle/10267/27435.
10. Human potential as a critical resource of Russia. Monograph. Yudin B.G.. ed. Мoscow: Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences; 2007 175 p. URL: https://iphras.ru/uplfile/root/biblio/2007/Chel_Pot_1.pdf?ysclid=lcqgm6m8aa219921 (In Russ.).
11. Soboleva I.V. Human potential of the russian economy: problems of preservation and development. Moscow: Science; 2007. 202 p.
12. Fedotov A.A. Human potential and human capital: essence and difference of concepts. Journal of Economy and Business. 2021;77(7):148–155. DOI: 10.24412/2411–0450–2021–7–148–155
13. Zaslavskaya T.I. Human potential in the modern transformation process. Social Sciences and Contemporary World. 2005;(3):5–16. URL: https://elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_18800652_74220254.PDF. (In Russ.).
14. Rimashevskaya N. The human potential of russia and the problems of “population savings”. Russian Economic Journal. 2004;(9–10):22–40. (In Russ.).
15. Rimashevskaya N. M., Bochkareva V.K., Migranova L.A., Molchanova E.V., Toksanbaeva M. S. Human potential of russian regions. Population. 2013;(3):82–141. URL: http://www.isesp-ras.ru/images/narodonaselenie/2013_3.pdf. (In Russ.).
16. Migranova L.A., Toksanbaeva M.S. Human potential of the population of the russian regions: level and dynamics of development (part one). Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2018;14(2):47– 59. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.19181/1999–9836–2018–10014
17. Plutova M.I. Prospects for the human potential of territories development: demographic component. Human Progress. 2021;7(4);9. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.34709/IM.174.9
18. Solntseva B.G., Smolyan G.L. Human potential: reflections on the meaning of the concept. In monograph Human potential: experience of an integrated approach. Moscow; 1999: 55–71. (In Russ.).
19. Khar’kova T.L., Nikitina S. Yu., Andreev E.M. Dependence of life expectancy on the education levels in Russia. Voprosy statistiki. 2017;(8):61–69. URL: https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/546/499, (In Russ.).
Review
For citations:
Sigareva E.P., Sivoplyasova S.Y., Arkhangelsk V.N. Changes in human potential in Russia until 2050 under the influence of the transformation of the age structure of the population. Economics, taxes & law. 2023;16(2):37-47. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2023-16-2-37-47
Views:
14
Email this article 