Taylor’s Rule as One of the Possible Models for Forecasting Monetary Policy Mechanisms
https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2023-16-1-87-98
Abstract
The subject of the study is the processes of transformation of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia in the new economy, contributing to the introduction of digital innovations. The purpose of the work is to establish, through the application of the Taylor rule, the dynamics of the key rate in the Russian Federation. The main research tools were correlation analysis and economic modeling of the Taylor rule in the EViews program based on empirical data of the Russian Federation. In the course of the study, the main goals, principles and rules of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia are revealed; the essence and advantages of the Taylor rule; the concept of inflation as one of the significant macroeconomic indicators; the methodology for assessing the parameters of the Taylor rule as a monetary policy tool is clarified. Express diagnostics of the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, modifications of the Taylor rule were carried out. A set of measures aimed at improving the quality of assessment of the optimal trajectory of the key rate has been developed.
About the Authors
D. A. Tsiring
Financial University, Ural Branch
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Diana A. Tsiring — Dr. Sci. (Psych.), Prof., Director,
Chelyabinsk.
Tatiana V. Malkova
Chelyabinsk State University, Miass Branch
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatiana V. Malkova — Cand. Sci. (Hist.), Assoc. Prof., Director,
Miass.
Yu. V. Lysenko
Financial University, Ural Branch
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yulia V. Lysenko — D r. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Prof. of the Departments of Economics, Finance and Management,
Chelyabinsk.
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Review
For citations:
Tsiring D.A., Malkova T.V., Lysenko Yu.V. Taylor’s Rule as One of the Possible Models for Forecasting Monetary Policy Mechanisms. Economics, taxes & law. 2023;16(1):87-98. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26794/1999-849X-2023-16-1-87-98
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