Quantitative Estimates of the Impact of Budget Investments on Economic Growth

Abstract

The subject of the study is budget investments and their impact on economic growth. The relevance of the topic of the article is due to the state of the modern economy, which is characterized by high turbulence and restrained economic growth, which has led to a change in the approaches of scientists to the role of the state in the economy and the search for tools capable of maintaining stable rates of economic growth in the long term. The purpose of the work is to quantify the impact of budget investments on economic growth in the Russian Federation. The article defines theoretical approaches to quantifying the impact of budget investments on economic growth through a retrospective analysis of the effects of budget investments using econometric tools; calculation of cross-country indices for evaluating the effectiveness of budget investments; modeling the possible effect of budget investments based on retrospective socio-economic data. The analysis of the effectiveness of budget investments in the Russian Federation using indicators of the quality of basic infrastructure is carried out. Based on the World Bank’s Long-term Growth Model, three options for possible changes in the volume of budget investments in the Russian Federation are considered, and an assessment of the economic effect of their implementation is carried out. The article concludes that in order to maintain stable economic growth rates in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to increase the volume of budget investments while maintaining the established level of state capital expenditures over the long-term horizon.