Forecasting Federal Budget Revenues Using MIDAS Models
Abstract
The relevance of the work lies in the need, in conditions of increasing instability and political tension, to promptly make managerial decisions in the field of public finance with a focus on predictive models that are adjusted in real time. The subject of the study is the relationship between Russian economic indicators and their use for forecasting federal budget revenues. The purpose of the work is to forecast federal budget revenues through the use of MIDAS models. The main research methods were the analysis of the interrelationships of economic indicators, comparison of the results obtained using MIDAS models. The result of the work was the choice of a model for forecasting federal budget revenues, which is based on multifrequency data that allows for a high degree of reliability in real time, taking into account business activity and the external economic situation. Using the results of this study will improve the accuracy of forecasting federal budget revenues. It is concluded that the MIDAS model will further provide the opportunity to make quarterly adjustments taking into account changes in the market situation.
Keywords
: revenue forecasting,
budget forecasting,
budget revenue estimation models,
MIDAS models,
high-frequency data
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds according to the state assignment of the Financial University for 2024, Moscow, Russia.
About the Author
O. V. Borisova
Financial University, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Olga V. Borisova — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assoc. Prof., Senior Researcher at the Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Transformations and Financial Policy; Assoc. Prof. of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance
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Review
For citations:
Borisova O.V. Forecasting Federal Budget Revenues Using MIDAS Models. Economics, taxes & law. 2024;17(6):89-100. (In Russ.)
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