etlЭкономика. Налоги. ПравоEconomics, taxes & law1999-849X2619-1474Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации10.26794/1999-849X-2024-17-2-17-26etl-58Research ArticleТЕМА ДНЯTOPIC OF THE DAYВзаимосвязь финансового развития и экономического роста России (2000–2022 годы)The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Russia (2000–2022)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5120-7816КараевА. К.KaraevA. K.

Алан Канаматович Караев — доктор технических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник Института исследований социально-экономических трансформаций и финансовой политики

Москва

Alan K. Karaev — Dr. Sci. (Tech.), Prof., Chief Researcher at the Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Transformations and Financial Policy

Moscow 

akkaraev@fa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7706-5011ПонкратовВ. В.PankratovV. V.

Вадим Витальевич Понкратов — кандидат экономических наук, директор Института исследований социально-экономических трансформаций и финансовой политики

Москва

Vadim V. Pankratov — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Director of the Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Transformations and Financial Policy

Moscow 

vponkratov@fa.ruФинансовый университетРоссияFinancial UniversityRussian Federation2024120520251721726Copyright © Караев А.К., Понкратов В.В., 20252025Караев А.К., Понкратов В.В.Karaev A.K., Pankratov V.V.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://etl.fa.ru/jour/article/view/58

Цель исследования — установление динамической взаимосвязи финансового развития, измеряемого долей ликвидных обязательств к ВВП, и экономического роста Российской Федерации, измеряемого как ВВП на душу населения, за период 2000–2022 гг. на основе корреляционного анализа с применением метода вейвлет-анализа, позволяющего выявлять эмпирические закономерности в отношениях между переменными в разных временных масштабах, которые невозможно обнаруживать традиционными методами анализа временных рядов. Результаты исследования свидетельствуют о том, что финансовое развитие в целом привело к экономическому росту России в 2000–2022 гг. и продемонстрировало положительное влияние финансового развития на экономический рост, которое наблюдается как в краткосрочной, так и среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективах, перемеживаясь с негативным влиянием финансового развития на экономическую активность в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективах. Этот негативный эффект влияния финансового развития на реальный сектор экономики страны характерен не только для России, но особенно актуален для стран с низким и ниже среднего уровнями дохода. Выявлено, что краткосрочные и среднесрочные негативные эффекты в дальнейшем переходят в положительные эффекты в долгосрочной перспективе, что согласуется, в частности, с эндогенной теорией роста. Сделаны выводы о том, что в практической реализации политики либерализации, направленной на финансовое развитие через финансовое углубление, необходимо и важно различать краткосрочные, среднесрочные и долгосрочные эффекты финансового развития на экономический рост, учитывая, что позитивные выгоды, получаемые за счет финансового углубления и либерализации, ожидаются только в случае, если экономика находится на определенном уровне своего развития, обусловленном, например, формированием зрелых институтов. 

The purpose of the study is to establish a dynamic relationship between financial development, measured by the share of liquid liabilities to GDP, and the economic growth of the Russian Federation, measured as GDP per capita, for the period 2000–2022. Based on correlation analysis using the method of wavelet analysis, which allows us to identify empirical patterns in the relationship between variables on different time scales that cannot be detected traditional methods of time series analysis. The results of the study indicate that financial development in general led to economic growth in Russia in 2000–2022 and demonstrated the positive impact of financial development on economic growth, which is observed both in the short, medium and long term, alternating with the negative impact of financial development on economic activity in the short and medium term. This negative effect of financial development on the real sector of the country’s economy is typical not only for Russia, but is especially relevant for low- and lower-middle-income countries. It was revealed that short- and medium-term negative effects later turn into positive effects in the long term, which is consistent, in particular, with the endogenous theory of growth. It is concluded that in the practical implementation of the liberalization policy aimed at financial development through financial deepening, it is necessary and important to distinguish between short-term, medium-term and long-term effects of financial development on economic development, given that the positive benefits obtained through financial deepening and liberalization are expected only if the economy is at a certain level the level of economic development, due, for example, to the formation of mature institutions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.