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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">etl</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Экономика. Налоги. Право</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Economics, taxes &amp; law</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1999-849X</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-1474</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.26794/1999-849X-2026-19-1-114-124</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">etl-481</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REGIONAL ECONOMY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Программные проекты экономического развития региона: оценка их приоритетности и моделирование последовательности их реализации</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Program Drafts for Regional Economic Development: Assessing Their Priority and Modeling the Sequence of Their Implementation</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5054-0676</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Новоселова</surname><given-names>И. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Novoselova</surname><given-names>I. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ирина Юрьевна Новоселова — ​ доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры отраслевых рынков факультета экономики и бизнеса</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Irina Yu. Novoselova — ​ Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof. of the Department of Industry and Markets, Faculty of Economics and Business</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">iunov2010@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1495-4836</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Новоселов</surname><given-names>А. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Novoselov</surname><given-names>A. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андрей Леонидович Новоселов — ​ доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры экономики нефтяной и газовой промышленности</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey L. Novoselov — ​ Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof. of the Department of Economics of the Oil and Gas Industry</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российский государственный университет нефти и газа (НИУ) имени И. М. Губкина</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (NRU)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>02</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>114</fpage><lpage>124</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Новоселова И.Ю., Новоселов А.Л., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Новоселова И.Ю., Новоселов А.Л.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Novoselova I.Y., Novoselov A.L.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://etl.fa.ru/jour/article/view/481">https://etl.fa.ru/jour/article/view/481</self-uri><abstract><p>Экономическое развитие регионов, восстановление и совершенствование промышленных предприятий, транспорт­ ной доступности, инфраструктуры является важнейшей комплексной задачей, для решения которой используются программы экономического развития. Корректная оценка приоритетности программных проектов и рациональное формирование порядка их реализации позволяют обеспечить гармоничное экономическое развитие региона. Цель работы — ​ создание интегрированного механизма оценки приоритетности проектов и моделирования расписания их выполнения с учетом приоритетности. Научная новизна исследования состоит в создании расчетного механизма, в котором интегрируются вербальная шкала для экспертных заключений, совмещенная с нечеткими оценками для определения приоритетов проектов программы регионального развития; критерий упущенной выгоды при задержке выполнения проектов для оценки полученного расписания; экономико-­математическая модель и алгоритм, основанные на выборе проектов в соответствии с их приоритетом. В основе определения сроков реализации проектов — ​минимизация критерия суммарной упущенной выгоды. Среди основных результатов исследования — ​ следующие авторские научно-­практические разработки: модель преобразования вербальных мнений экспертов в количественные оценки приоритетности проектов; механизм применения полученных оценок приоритетности проектов при построении критерия упущенной выгоды для моделирования расписания выполнения проектов; пошаговые алгоритмы решения поставленных задач, позволяющие разработать необходимое программное обеспечение. Сделан вывод о том, что предложенная процедура является универсальной и ее можно рекомендовать для формирования программ развития экономики не только на уровне субъекта федерации, но также — ​ района и муниципалитета.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The most important complex tasks solved by economic development programs are the economic development of regions, the restoration and improvement of industrial enterprises, transport accessibility, and infrastructure. Accurate evaluation of program project priorities and logical arrangement of their execution promotes the region’s economic harmony. The research aims to build an integrated mechanism for assessing the priority of projects and modeling their implementation schedule considering the priority. The study’s scientific novelty stems from its calculation mechanism that uses both expert opinions (verbal scale) and fuzzy estimates to decide regional development project priorities. Also, the authors offer a criterion of lost profits in case of delay in project implementation for assessing the resulting schedule; an economic and mathematical model; and an algorithm based on the selection of projects under their priority. The implementation schedule is based on minimizing total lost profits. The study’s key results include the following original scientific and practical developments: a model for converting verbal expert opinions into quantitative assessments of project priority; the applying mechanism for the obtained draft priority assessments to construct a lost-profit criterion for project schedule modeling; step-by-step algorithms for solving the assigned problems, enabling the software development. The authors concluded that the proposed procedure is universal, and they recommend it for economic boosting program development at the federal subject level and at the district and municipal ones.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>регион</kwd><kwd>приоритетность</kwd><kwd>проекты</kwd><kwd>упущенная выгода</kwd><kwd>моделирование</kwd><kwd>расписание</kwd><kwd>критерий оптимальности</kwd><kwd>модель</kwd><kwd>оценка</kwd><kwd>планирование</kwd><kwd>целевая программа</kwd><kwd>экономическое развитие</kwd><kwd>отрасли экономики</kwd><kwd>механизм оценки</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>region</kwd><kwd>priority</kwd><kwd>projects</kwd><kwd>lost profit</kwd><kwd>modeling</kwd><kwd>schedule</kwd><kwd>optimality criterion</kwd><kwd>model</kwd><kwd>assessment</kwd><kwd>planning</kwd><kwd>target program</kwd><kwd>economic development</kwd><kwd>economy sectors</kwd><kwd>assessment mechanism</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bortnikov N. 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